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Lambton Jaffas vs Hamilton Olympic — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Lambton Jaffas
Lambton Jaffas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hamilton Olympic
Hamilton Olympic
3/23/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 5Arthur Edden Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lambton Jaffas47%
×Draw23%
Hamilton Olympic30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lambton Jaffas
1.81
Hamilton Olympic
1.42

Lambton Jaffas creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 80 away

creates per match

Lambton Jaffas
2.17
Hamilton Olympic
1.59

allows per match

Lambton Jaffas
1.25
Hamilton Olympic
1.46

finishing

Lambton Jaffas+0.00on par
Hamilton Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lambton Jaffas ↓

Hamilton Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lambton Jaffas or draw
70%
Lambton Jaffas or Hamilton Olympic
77%
Draw or Hamilton Olympic
53%

Winning margin

Lambton Jaffas wins by 2+
25%
Hamilton Olympic wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lambton Jaffas 1+ goals
84%
Lambton Jaffas 2+ goals
54%
Lambton Jaffas 3+ goals
27%
Hamilton Olympic 1+ goals
76%
Hamilton Olympic 2+ goals
41%
Hamilton Olympic 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lambton Jaffas (draw refunded)
61%
Hamilton Olympic (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lambton Jaffas at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

Hamilton Olympic away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lambton Jaffas attack 2.17 + Hamilton Olympic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.81

Hamilton Olympic attack 1.59 + Lambton Jaffas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lambton Jaffas scores more
47%
level
23%
Hamilton Olympic scores more
30%

Lambton Jaffas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lambton Jaffas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lambton Jaffas vs Hamilton Olympic

Lambton Jaffas beat Hamilton Olympic 1-0 in Northern NSW NPL on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Arthur Edden Oval in Newcastle.