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Hamilton Olympic vs Lambton Jaffas — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Hamilton Olympic
Hamilton Olympic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lambton Jaffas
Lambton Jaffas
Unknown 57' (OG)
R. O'Donovan 46'
A. Zervas 16'
L. Jaffas 28'
7/6/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 18Darling Street Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Hamilton Olympic33%
×Draw23%
Lambton Jaffas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamilton Olympic
1.53
Lambton Jaffas
1.83

Lambton Jaffas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 83 away

creates per match

Hamilton Olympic
1.91
Lambton Jaffas
1.92

allows per match

Hamilton Olympic
1.75
Lambton Jaffas
1.16

finishing

Hamilton Olympic+0.00on par
Lambton Jaffas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Olympic ↓

Lambton Jaffas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hamilton Olympic or draw
55%
Hamilton Olympic or Lambton Jaffas
77%
Draw or Lambton Jaffas
67%

Winning margin

Hamilton Olympic wins by 2+
15%
Lambton Jaffas wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hamilton Olympic 1+ goals
78%
Hamilton Olympic 2+ goals
45%
Hamilton Olympic 3+ goals
20%
Lambton Jaffas 1+ goals
84%
Lambton Jaffas 2+ goals
54%
Lambton Jaffas 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Olympic (draw refunded)
42%
Lambton Jaffas (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.75 · 77 matches

Lambton Jaffas away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Olympic attack 1.91 + Lambton Jaffas defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lambton Jaffas attack 1.92 + Hamilton Olympic defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hamilton Olympic scores more
33%
level
23%
Lambton Jaffas scores more
45%

Lambton Jaffas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lambton Jaffas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
A. Zervas
28'
L. Jaffas
46'
R. O'Donovan
57'
Own goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamilton Olympic vs Lambton Jaffas

Hamilton Olympic beat Lambton Jaffas 3-1 in Northern NSW NPL on July 6, 2025.

Goals: A. Zervas (16'), L. Jaffas (28'), R. O'Donovan (46'), ? (57' o.g.).

The match was played at Darling Street Oval in Newcastle.