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Lambton Jaffas vs Cooks Hill United — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Lambton Jaffas
Lambton Jaffas
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cooks Hill United
Cooks Hill United
3/3/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 2No.2 Sportsground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lambton Jaffas49%
×Draw21%
Cooks Hill United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lambton Jaffas
2.04
Cooks Hill United
1.56

Lambton Jaffas creates 31% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 52 away

creates per match

Lambton Jaffas
2.13
Cooks Hill United
1.85

allows per match

Lambton Jaffas
1.26
Cooks Hill United
1.96

finishing

Lambton Jaffas+0.00on par
Cooks Hill United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lambton Jaffas ↓

Cooks Hill United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lambton Jaffas or draw
70%
Lambton Jaffas or Cooks Hill United
79%
Draw or Cooks Hill United
51%

Winning margin

Lambton Jaffas wins by 2+
28%
Cooks Hill United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lambton Jaffas 1+ goals
87%
Lambton Jaffas 2+ goals
60%
Lambton Jaffas 3+ goals
33%
Cooks Hill United 1+ goals
79%
Cooks Hill United 2+ goals
46%
Cooks Hill United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lambton Jaffas (draw refunded)
62%
Cooks Hill United (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lambton Jaffas at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 84 matches

Cooks Hill United away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.96 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lambton Jaffas attack 2.13 + Cooks Hill United defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.04

Cooks Hill United attack 1.85 + Lambton Jaffas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lambton Jaffas scores more
49%
level
21%
Cooks Hill United scores more
30%

Lambton Jaffas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lambton Jaffas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Lambton Jaffas 4–1 Cooks Hill United

Lambton Jaffas beat Cooks Hill United 4-1 in Northern NSW NPL on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at No.2 Sportsground in Newcastle.