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Cooks Hill United vs Lambton Jaffas — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Cooks Hill United
Cooks Hill United
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lambton Jaffas
Lambton Jaffas
5/25/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 13Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Cooks Hill United32%
×Draw23%
Lambton Jaffas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cooks Hill United
1.50
Lambton Jaffas
1.80

Lambton Jaffas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 83 away

creates per match

Cooks Hill United
1.83
Lambton Jaffas
1.92

allows per match

Cooks Hill United
1.69
Lambton Jaffas
1.16

finishing

Cooks Hill United+0.00on par
Lambton Jaffas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cooks Hill United ↓

Lambton Jaffas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cooks Hill United or draw
55%
Cooks Hill United or Lambton Jaffas
77%
Draw or Lambton Jaffas
68%

Winning margin

Cooks Hill United wins by 2+
15%
Lambton Jaffas wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cooks Hill United 1+ goals
78%
Cooks Hill United 2+ goals
44%
Cooks Hill United 3+ goals
19%
Lambton Jaffas 1+ goals
83%
Lambton Jaffas 2+ goals
54%
Lambton Jaffas 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Cooks Hill United (draw refunded)
42%
Lambton Jaffas (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cooks Hill United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

Lambton Jaffas away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cooks Hill United attack 1.83 + Lambton Jaffas defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lambton Jaffas attack 1.92 + Cooks Hill United defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cooks Hill United scores more
32%
level
23%
Lambton Jaffas scores more
45%

Lambton Jaffas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lambton Jaffas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cooks Hill United vs Lambton Jaffas

Lambton Jaffas beat Cooks Hill United 3-2 in Northern NSW NPL on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre in Newcastle.