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Lala FC vs CA Furrial — Segunda División 2018

Lala FC
Lala FC
FT
1 – 2
CA Furrial
CA Furrial
5/31/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 20CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lala FC43%
×Draw27%
CA Furrial30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lala FC
1.38
CA Furrial
1.09

Lala FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lala FC
1.11
CA Furrial
0.91

allows per match

Lala FC
1.28
CA Furrial
1.64

finishing

Lala FC+0.00on par
CA Furrial+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lala FC ↓

CA Furrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lala FC or draw
70%
Lala FC or CA Furrial
73%
Draw or CA Furrial
57%

Winning margin

Lala FC wins by 2+
21%
CA Furrial wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lala FC 1+ goals
75%
Lala FC 2+ goals
40%
Lala FC 3+ goals
16%
CA Furrial 1+ goals
66%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
30%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lala FC (draw refunded)
59%
CA Furrial (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lala FC at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

CA Furrial away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lala FC attack 1.11 + CA Furrial defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

CA Furrial attack 0.91 + Lala FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lala FC scores more
43%
level
27%
CA Furrial scores more
30%

Lala FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lala FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lala FC vs CA Furrial

CA Furrial beat Lala FC 2-1 in Segunda División on May 31, 2018.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).