CA Furrial 0–3 Lala FC: Result & Stats

CA Furrial

FT

0 – 3

Lala FC

4/4/2018

Segunda División · Apertura - 9Estadio Monumental de Maturín (Maturín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CA Furrial33%

×Draw27%

Lala FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA FurrialExpected goals in this matchLala FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.29

CA Furrial

1.16

Lala FC

1.29

Lala FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

1.19

creates per match

1.06

1.52

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

CA Furrial

1.19

Lala FC

1.06

allows per match

CA Furrial

1.52

Lala FC

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par

Lala FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Lala FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw

61%

CA Furrial or Lala FC

73%

Draw or Lala FC

67%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+

14%

Lala FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals

69%

CA Furrial 2+ goals

32%

CA Furrial 3+ goals

11%

Lala FC 1+ goals

72%

Lala FC 2+ goals

37%

Lala FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)

46%

Lala FC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Lala FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Lala FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lala FC attack 1.06 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CA Furrial scores more

33%

level

27%

Lala FC scores more

39%

Lala FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lala FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff