Laktaši 1–0 Kozara Gradiška: Result & Stats

Laktaši

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kozara Gradiška

4/19/2026

1st League - RS · RS - 25Stadion Laktaša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Laktaši70%

×Draw18%

Kozara Gradiška11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaktašiExpected goals in this matchKozara Gradiška

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.74

Laktaši

2.19

Kozara Gradiška

0.74

Laktaši creates 196% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 104 away

2.70

creates per match

0.84

0.65

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Laktaši

2.70

Kozara Gradiška

0.84

allows per match

Laktaši

0.65

Kozara Gradiška

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laktaši+0.00on par

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laktaši ↓

Kozara Gradiška →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Laktaši or draw

89%

Laktaši or Kozara Gradiška

82%

Draw or Kozara Gradiška

30%

Winning margin

Laktaši wins by 2+

46%

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Laktaši 1+ goals

89%

Laktaši 2+ goals

64%

Laktaši 3+ goals

37%

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals

52%

Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals

17%

Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Laktaši (draw refunded)

86%

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laktaši at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.65 · 66 matches

Kozara Gradiška away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laktaši attack 2.70 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.19

Kozara Gradiška attack 0.84 + Laktaši defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Laktaši scores more

70%

level

18%

Kozara Gradiška scores more

11%

Laktaši at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Laktaši will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff