Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kozara Gradiška vs Laktaši — 1st League - RS 2019

Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Laktaši
Laktaši
10/18/20251st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Kozara Gradiška35%
×Draw26%
Laktaši39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara Gradiška
1.31
Laktaši
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 65 away

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.62
Laktaši
1.71

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.05
Laktaši
1.00

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par
Laktaši+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

Laktaši →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw
61%
Kozara Gradiška or Laktaši
74%
Draw or Laktaši
65%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
16%
Laktaši wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
73%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
38%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
14%
Laktaši 1+ goals
75%
Laktaši 2+ goals
40%
Laktaši 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
48%
Laktaši (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Laktaši away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + Laktaši defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Laktaši attack 1.71 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more
35%
level
26%
Laktaši scores more
39%

Laktaši at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Laktaši will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Kozara Gradiška 1–0 Laktaši

Kozara Gradiška beat Laktaši 1-0 in 1st League - RS on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Gradiška.