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Lake Macquarie vs Charlestown City Blues — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Lake Macquarie
Lake Macquarie
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Charlestown City Blues
Charlestown City Blues
8/3/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 14Macquarie Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lake Macquarie20%
×Draw20%
Charlestown City Blues60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lake Macquarie
1.19
Charlestown City Blues
2.21

Charlestown City Blues creates 86% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 81 away

creates per match

Lake Macquarie
0.96
Charlestown City Blues
1.59

allows per match

Lake Macquarie
2.84
Charlestown City Blues
1.42

finishing

Lake Macquarie+0.00on par
Charlestown City Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lake Macquarie ↓

Charlestown City Blues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lake Macquarie or draw
40%
Lake Macquarie or Charlestown City Blues
80%
Draw or Charlestown City Blues
80%

Winning margin

Lake Macquarie wins by 2+
8%
Charlestown City Blues wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Lake Macquarie 1+ goals
70%
Lake Macquarie 2+ goals
33%
Lake Macquarie 3+ goals
12%
Charlestown City Blues 1+ goals
89%
Charlestown City Blues 2+ goals
65%
Charlestown City Blues 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)
25%
Charlestown City Blues (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lake Macquarie at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.84 · 57 matches

Charlestown City Blues away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lake Macquarie attack 0.96 + Charlestown City Blues defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Charlestown City Blues attack 1.59 + Lake Macquarie defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lake Macquarie scores more
20%
level
20%
Charlestown City Blues scores more
60%

Charlestown City Blues at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Charlestown City Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lake Macquarie vs Charlestown City Blues

Charlestown City Blues beat Lake Macquarie 4-0 in Northern NSW NPL on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Macquarie Field in Newcastle.