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Charlestown City Blues vs Lake Macquarie — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Charlestown City Blues
Charlestown City Blues
FT
6 – 1
HT: 6 – 1
Lake Macquarie
Lake Macquarie
6/5/2022Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 13Lisle Carr Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Charlestown City Blues65%
×Draw18%
Lake Macquarie17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlestown City Blues
2.51
Lake Macquarie
1.23

Charlestown City Blues creates 104% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 59 away

creates per match

Charlestown City Blues
1.66
Lake Macquarie
0.98

allows per match

Charlestown City Blues
1.48
Lake Macquarie
3.36

finishing

Charlestown City Blues+0.00on par
Lake Macquarie+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlestown City Blues ↓

Lake Macquarie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Charlestown City Blues or draw
83%
Charlestown City Blues or Lake Macquarie
82%
Draw or Lake Macquarie
35%

Winning margin

Charlestown City Blues wins by 2+
43%
Lake Macquarie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Charlestown City Blues 1+ goals
92%
Charlestown City Blues 2+ goals
71%
Charlestown City Blues 3+ goals
45%
Lake Macquarie 1+ goals
71%
Lake Macquarie 2+ goals
35%
Lake Macquarie 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Charlestown City Blues (draw refunded)
79%
Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlestown City Blues at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.48 · 79 matches

Lake Macquarie away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlestown City Blues attack 1.66 + Lake Macquarie defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.51

Lake Macquarie attack 0.98 + Charlestown City Blues defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Charlestown City Blues scores more
65%
level
18%
Lake Macquarie scores more
17%

Charlestown City Blues at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Charlestown City Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Charlestown City Blues 6–1 Lake Macquarie

Charlestown City Blues beat Lake Macquarie 6-1 in Northern NSW NPL on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Lisle Carr Oval in Whitebridge.