Lake Macquarie 1–6 Broadmeadow Magic

Lake Macquarie

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

Broadmeadow Magic

7/15/2023

Northern NSW NPL · Round 19Macquarie Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lake Macquarie14%

×Draw17%

Broadmeadow Magic69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lake MacquarieExpected goals in this matchBroadmeadow Magic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.58

Lake Macquarie

1.10

Broadmeadow Magic

2.58

Broadmeadow Magic creates 135% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 81 away

0.96

creates per match

2.32

2.84

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Lake Macquarie

0.96

Broadmeadow Magic

2.32

allows per match

Lake Macquarie

2.84

Broadmeadow Magic

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lake Macquarie+0.00on par

Broadmeadow Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lake Macquarie ↓

Broadmeadow Magic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Lake Macquarie or draw

31%

Lake Macquarie or Broadmeadow Magic

83%

Draw or Broadmeadow Magic

86%

Winning margin

Lake Macquarie wins by 2+

5%

Broadmeadow Magic wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Lake Macquarie 1+ goals

67%

Lake Macquarie 2+ goals

30%

Lake Macquarie 3+ goals

10%

Broadmeadow Magic 1+ goals

92%

Broadmeadow Magic 2+ goals

72%

Broadmeadow Magic 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)

17%

Broadmeadow Magic (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lake Macquarie at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.84 · 57 matches

Broadmeadow Magic away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.25 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lake Macquarie attack 0.96 + Broadmeadow Magic defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Broadmeadow Magic attack 2.32 + Lake Macquarie defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lake Macquarie scores more

14%

level

17%

Broadmeadow Magic scores more

69%

Broadmeadow Magic at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Broadmeadow Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff