Broadmeadow Magic 1–1 Lake Macquarie

Broadmeadow Magic

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lake Macquarie

4/23/2023

Northern NSW NPL · Round 8Wanderers Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Broadmeadow Magic77%

×Draw13%

Lake Macquarie10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broadmeadow MagicExpected goals in this matchLake Macquarie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.02

Broadmeadow Magic

3.04

Lake Macquarie

1.02

Broadmeadow Magic creates 198% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 59 away

2.72

creates per match

0.98

1.05

allows per match

3.36

creates per match

Broadmeadow Magic

2.72

Lake Macquarie

0.98

allows per match

Broadmeadow Magic

1.05

Lake Macquarie

3.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broadmeadow Magic+0.00on par

Lake Macquarie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broadmeadow Magic ↓

Lake Macquarie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Broadmeadow Magic or draw

90%

Broadmeadow Magic or Lake Macquarie

87%

Draw or Lake Macquarie

23%

Winning margin

Broadmeadow Magic wins by 2+

57%

Lake Macquarie wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Broadmeadow Magic 1+ goals

95%

Broadmeadow Magic 2+ goals

80%

Broadmeadow Magic 3+ goals

57%

Lake Macquarie 1+ goals

64%

Lake Macquarie 2+ goals

27%

Lake Macquarie 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Broadmeadow Magic (draw refunded)

89%

Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broadmeadow Magic at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Lake Macquarie away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broadmeadow Magic attack 2.72 + Lake Macquarie defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 3.04

Lake Macquarie attack 0.98 + Broadmeadow Magic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Broadmeadow Magic scores more

77%

level

13%

Lake Macquarie scores more

10%

Broadmeadow Magic at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Broadmeadow Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff