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Lahti vs Rops — Veikkausliiga 2018

Lahti
Lahti
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rops
Rops
5/18/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 9Lahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Lahti45%
×Draw27%
Rops28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.42
Rops
1.07

Lahti creates 33% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 43 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.26
Rops
0.88

allows per match

Lahti
1.27
Rops
1.58

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
72%
Lahti or Rops
73%
Draw or Rops
55%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
22%
Rops wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
76%
Lahti 2+ goals
41%
Lahti 3+ goals
17%
Rops 1+ goals
66%
Rops 2+ goals
29%
Rops 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
61%
Rops (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

Rops away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.26 + Rops defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rops attack 0.88 + Lahti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lahti scores more
45%
level
27%
Rops scores more
28%

Lahti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Lahti 0–0 Rops

Lahti and Rops drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on May 18, 2018.

The match was played at Lahden Stadion in Lahti.