Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Laguna vs ABC — Serie D 2026

Laguna
Laguna
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
ABC
ABC
Edson 85'
Wallyson 1'
5/31/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Laguna21%
×Draw31%
ABC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna
0.68
ABC
1.19

ABC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 26 away

creates per match

Laguna
0.40
ABC
1.19

allows per match

Laguna
1.20
ABC
0.96

finishing

Laguna+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 71Over: 2971%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 66Yes: 3466%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Laguna or draw
52%
Laguna or ABC
69%
Draw or ABC
79%

Winning margin

Laguna wins by 2+
6%
ABC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Laguna 1+ goals
49%
Laguna 2+ goals
15%
Laguna 3+ goals
3%
ABC 1+ goals
70%
ABC 2+ goals
33%
ABC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Laguna (draw refunded)
30%
ABC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

ABC away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna attack 0.40 + ABC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.68

ABC attack 1.19 + Laguna defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Laguna scores more
21%
level
31%
ABC scores more
48%

ABC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Wallyson
85'
Edson
Laguna
ABC
Gustavo Nabinger
Manager: Gustavo Nabinger
Dias Waguinho
Manager: Dias Waguinho

Laguna 0 – 2 ABC

ABC beat Laguna 2-0 in Serie D on May 31, 2026.

Goals: Wallyson (1'), Edson (85').