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ABC vs Laguna — League #616 2026

ABC
ABC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Laguna
Laguna
Edson 50'
Joao Diogo 14'
1/11/2026League #616League #616 · Round 1Estadio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ABC67%
×Draw25%
Laguna9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.54
Laguna
0.38

ABC creates 305% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

ABC
1.57
Laguna
0.33

allows per match

ABC
0.43
Laguna
1.50

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 70Over: 3070%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 75Yes: 2575%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ABC or draw
91%
ABC or Laguna
75%
Draw or Laguna
33%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
37%
Laguna wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
79%
ABC 2+ goals
45%
ABC 3+ goals
20%
Laguna 1+ goals
32%
Laguna 2+ goals
6%
Laguna 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
88%
Laguna (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Laguna away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.57 + Laguna defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Laguna attack 0.33 + ABC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

ABC scores more
67%
level
25%
Laguna scores more
9%

ABC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Joao Diogo
50'
Edson
ABC
Laguna
Evaristo Piza
Manager: Evaristo Piza
Gustavo Nabinger
Manager: Gustavo Nabinger

League #616: ABC 2–0 Laguna

ABC beat Laguna 2-0 in League #616 on January 11, 2026.

Goals: Joao Diogo (14'), Edson (50').

The match was played at Estadio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal.