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Laguna de Duero vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
4/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero30%
×Draw28%
La Virgen del Camino41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
1.03
La Virgen del Camino
1.25

La Virgen del Camino creates 21% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 111 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
59%
Laguna de Duero or La Virgen del Camino
72%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
70%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
11%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
64%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
28%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
9%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
71%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
36%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
42%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.03

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
30%
level
28%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
41%

La Virgen del Camino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laguna de Duero vs La Virgen del Camino

Laguna de Duero beat La Virgen del Camino 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.