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La Virgen del Camino vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

La Virgen del Camino58%
×Draw23%
Laguna de Duero18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.75
Laguna de Duero
0.86

La Virgen del Camino creates 103% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 35 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
82%
La Virgen del Camino or Laguna de Duero
77%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
42%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
33%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
83%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
52%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
25%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
58%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
21%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
76%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
58%
level
23%
Laguna de Duero scores more
18%

La Virgen del Camino at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Virgen del Camino vs Laguna de Duero

La Virgen del Camino and Laguna de Duero drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.