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Laguna de Duero vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
3/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero24%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
0.85
Cultural Leonesa II
1.31

Cultural Leonesa II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 110 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
53%
Laguna de Duero or Cultural Leonesa II
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
76%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
8%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
57%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
21%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
5%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
73%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
38%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
34%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
24%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
47%

Cultural Leonesa II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Laguna de Duero 0 – 1 Cultural Leonesa II

Cultural Leonesa II beat Laguna de Duero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.