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Cultural Leonesa II vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 19Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Cultural Leonesa II58%
×Draw22%
Laguna de Duero20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa II
1.91
Laguna de Duero
1.02

Cultural Leonesa II creates 87% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 35 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.42
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa II
1.23
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa II ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa II or draw
80%
Cultural Leonesa II or Laguna de Duero
78%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
42%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
34%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
85%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
57%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
30%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
64%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
27%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
74%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.42 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.91

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cultural Leonesa II scores more
58%
level
22%
Laguna de Duero scores more
20%

Cultural Leonesa II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa II vs Laguna de Duero

Cultural Leonesa II beat Laguna de Duero 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Área Deportiva Municipal Puente Castro in León.