Laguna de Duero 0–1 Ciudad Rodrigo: Result & Stats

Laguna de Duero

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ciudad Rodrigo

4/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 34Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Laguna de Duero41%

×Draw27%

Ciudad Rodrigo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Laguna de DueroExpected goals in this matchCiudad Rodrigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Laguna de Duero

1.31

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.10

Laguna de Duero creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

0.63

creates per match

0.74

1.46

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Laguna de Duero

0.63

Ciudad Rodrigo

0.74

allows per match

Laguna de Duero

1.46

Ciudad Rodrigo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw

69%

Laguna de Duero or Ciudad Rodrigo

73%

Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo

59%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+

19%

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals

73%

Laguna de Duero 2+ goals

38%

Laguna de Duero 3+ goals

14%

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals

67%

Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals

30%

Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)

57%

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more

41%

level

27%

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more

31%

Laguna de Duero at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Laguna de Duero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff