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Ciudad Rodrigo vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
12/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 15Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo51%
×Draw23%
Laguna de Duero25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.77
Laguna de Duero
1.17

Ciudad Rodrigo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.15
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.53
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw
75%
Ciudad Rodrigo or Laguna de Duero
77%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
49%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
28%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
83%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
53%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
26%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
69%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
33%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
67%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
51%
level
23%
Laguna de Duero scores more
25%

Ciudad Rodrigo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ciudad Rodrigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad Rodrigo 1 – 1 Laguna de Duero

Ciudad Rodrigo and Laguna de Duero drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos in Salamanca.