Laguna de Duero 1–2 Bembibre: Result & Stats

Laguna de Duero

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bembibre

9/9/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero34%

×Draw29%

Bembibre37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Laguna de DueroExpected goals in this matchBembibre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.14

Laguna de Duero

1.07

Bembibre

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 110 away

0.63

creates per match

0.82

1.46

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Laguna de Duero

0.63

Bembibre

0.82

allows per match

Laguna de Duero

1.46

Bembibre

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Bembibre →

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw

63%

Laguna de Duero or Bembibre

71%

Draw or Bembibre

66%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+

13%

Bembibre wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals

66%

Laguna de Duero 2+ goals

29%

Laguna de Duero 3+ goals

Bembibre 1+ goals

68%

Bembibre 2+ goals

32%

Bembibre 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)

48%

Bembibre (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more

34%

level

29%

Bembibre scores more

37%

Bembibre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff