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Bembibre vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bembibre55%
×Draw24%
Laguna de Duero21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.73
Laguna de Duero
0.97

Bembibre creates 78% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
79%
Bembibre or Laguna de Duero
76%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
45%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
31%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
82%
Bembibre 2+ goals
52%
Bembibre 3+ goals
25%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
62%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
25%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
72%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bembibre scores more
55%
level
24%
Laguna de Duero scores more
21%

Bembibre at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bembibre vs Laguna de Duero

Bembibre beat Laguna de Duero 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.