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Laguna de Duero vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
11/4/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 9Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero25%
×Draw29%
Atlético Tordesillas47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
0.85
Atlético Tordesillas
1.29

Atlético Tordesillas creates 52% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 110 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
53%
Laguna de Duero or Atlético Tordesillas
71%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
75%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
8%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
57%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
21%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
5%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
34%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
25%
level
29%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
47%

Atlético Tordesillas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laguna de Duero vs Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Laguna de Duero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.