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Atlético Tordesillas vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
3/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 26Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas65%
×Draw21%
Laguna de Duero14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.90
Laguna de Duero
0.74

Atlético Tordesillas creates 157% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 35 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
86%
Atlético Tordesillas or Laguna de Duero
79%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
35%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
39%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
56%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
29%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
52%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
17%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
82%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
65%
level
21%
Laguna de Duero scores more
14%

Atlético Tordesillas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Tordesillas vs Laguna de Duero

Laguna de Duero beat Atlético Tordesillas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.