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Laguna de Duero vs Atlético Mansillés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Mansillés
Atlético Mansillés
12/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero28%
×Draw32%
Atlético Mansillés40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
0.81
Atlético Mansillés
1.04

Atlético Mansillés creates 28% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Atlético Mansillés
0.63

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Atlético Mansillés
1.00

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Atlético Mansillés+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Atlético Mansillés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
60%
Laguna de Duero or Atlético Mansillés
68%
Draw or Atlético Mansillés
72%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Mansillés wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
56%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
19%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
5%
Atlético Mansillés 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Mansillés 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Mansillés 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
41%
Atlético Mansillés (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Atlético Mansillés away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Atlético Mansillés defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Atlético Mansillés attack 0.63 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
28%
level
32%
Atlético Mansillés scores more
40%

Atlético Mansillés at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Mansillés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Laguna de Duero 0–0 Atlético Mansillés

Laguna de Duero and Atlético Mansillés drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.