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Atlético Mansillés vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Mansillés
Atlético Mansillés
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 35Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Atlético Mansillés61%
×Draw22%
Laguna de Duero17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mansillés
1.84
Laguna de Duero
0.84

Atlético Mansillés creates 119% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Atlético Mansillés
1.29
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Atlético Mansillés
0.89
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Atlético Mansillés+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mansillés ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Mansillés or draw
83%
Atlético Mansillés or Laguna de Duero
78%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
39%

Winning margin

Atlético Mansillés wins by 2+
36%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Mansillés 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Mansillés 2+ goals
55%
Atlético Mansillés 3+ goals
28%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
57%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
21%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mansillés (draw refunded)
78%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mansillés at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mansillés attack 1.29 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Atlético Mansillés defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atlético Mansillés scores more
61%
level
22%
Laguna de Duero scores more
17%

Atlético Mansillés at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atlético Mansillés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Mansillés 5–0 Laguna de Duero

Atlético Mansillés beat Laguna de Duero 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas in Mansilla de las Mulas.