Lagun Onak 1–0 Deportivo Alavés II: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Alavés II

Manex Iradi 88'

2/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lagun Onak32%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Alavés II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.25

Lagun Onak

1.07

Deportivo Alavés II

1.25

Deportivo Alavés II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 19 away

1.35

creates per match

1.53

0.97

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Deportivo Alavés II

1.53

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Deportivo Alavés II

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

60%

Lagun Onak or Deportivo Alavés II

72%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés II

68%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

12%

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

66%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

29%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

44%

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.07

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.53 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

32%

level

28%

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

40%

Deportivo Alavés II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Berlanga← Marc Ureña

62'

Alan Godoy← Unai Ropero

68'

Nacho Castillo← Álex Balboa

76'

Gereta← Donazar

76'

Aratz Garmendia← Kepa Goikoetxea

78'

Guti← Adri Pérez

78'

Marino Illescas← Tomás Mendes

81'

Zubillaga← Barquero

88'

Manex Iradi

89'

Aitor Díez← Manex Iradi

Lagun

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ander Avellaneda

76'▲Gereta←▼Donazar

76'▲Aratz Garmendia←▼Kepa Goikoetxea

81'▲Zubillaga←▼Barquero

89'▲Aitor Díez←▼Manex Iradi

Lagun Onak substitutes

GeretaGarmendiaZubillagaDíez

Manager: Toni Seligrat

62'▲Berlanga←▼Marc Ureña

62'▲Alan Godoy←▼Unai Ropero

68'▲Nacho Castillo←▼Álex Balboa

78'▲Guti←▼Adri Pérez

78'▲Marino Illescas←▼Tomás Mendes

Deportivo Alavés II substitutes

BerlangaGodoyCastilloGutiIllescas

Match Recap: Lagun Onak vs Deportivo Alavés II

Lagun Onak beat Deportivo Alavés II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 16, 2022.

Goals: Manex Iradi (88').

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.

Lagun Onak vs Deportivo Alavés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lagun Onak vs Deportivo Alavés II