Deportivo Alavés II 3–1 Lagun Onak: Result & Stats

Deportivo Alavés II

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lagun Onak

Marc Ureña 79'

Unai Ropero 70'

Imanol Baz 65'

Gereta 87'

10/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II58%

×Draw23%

Lagun Onak19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIExpected goals in this matchLagun Onak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.91

Deportivo Alavés II

1.79

Lagun Onak

0.91

Deportivo Alavés II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 114 away

2.26

creates per match

0.97

0.84

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II

2.26

Lagun Onak

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II

0.84

Lagun Onak

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Lagun Onak →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw

81%

Deportivo Alavés II or Lagun Onak

77%

Draw or Lagun Onak

42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

33%

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

83%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

53%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

26%

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

60%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

23%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

75%

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 2.26 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.79

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

58%

level

23%

Lagun Onak scores more

19%

Deportivo Alavés II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Țîrlea← Alan Godoy

62'

Marc Ureña← J. Otuo

62'

Marino Illescas← Guti

65'

Imanol Baz

66'

Gereta← Donazar

66'

Iker Olaizola← Manex Iradi

70'

Unai Ropero

76'

Jagoba Erdozia← Iván Castillo

76'

Ekhi Gonzalez← Jon Aranda

79'

Marc Ureña

82'

Chechu← Carpio

82'

Hugo Pérez← A. Rebbach

85'

Egoitz Iraola← Oinatz Elustondo

87'

Gereta

Deportivo

Lagun

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Toni Seligrat

30'▲A. Țîrlea←▼Alan Godoy

62'▲Marc Ureña←▼J. Otuo

62'▲Marino Illescas←▼Guti

82'▲Chechu←▼Carpio

82'▲Hugo Pérez←▼A. Rebbach

Deportivo Alavés II substitutes

ȚîrleaUreñaIllescasChechuPérez

Manager: Ander Avellaneda

66'▲Gereta←▼Donazar

66'▲Iker Olaizola←▼Manex Iradi

76'▲Jagoba Erdozia←▼Iván Castillo

76'▲Ekhi Gonzalez←▼Jon Aranda

85'▲Egoitz Iraola←▼Oinatz Elustondo

Lagun Onak substitutes

GeretaOlaizolaErdoziaGonzalezIraola

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Deportivo Alavés II 3–1 Lagun Onak

Deportivo Alavés II beat Lagun Onak 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 12, 2021.

Goals: Imanol Baz (65'), Unai Ropero (70'), Marc Ureña (79'), Gereta (87').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés II vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Deportivo Alavés II 3–1 Lagun Onak