Lagun Onak 1–2 Basconia: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Basconia

Jagoba Erdozia 75'

Aritz Conde 60'

Aimar Vicandi 7' (pen)

3/23/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Lagun Onak35%

×Draw29%

Basconia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchBasconia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.16

Lagun Onak

1.12

Basconia

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 95 away

1.35

creates per match

1.34

0.97

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Basconia

1.34

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Basconia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Basconia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Basconia →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

63%

Lagun Onak or Basconia

71%

Draw or Basconia

65%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

14%

Basconia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

67%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

31%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

10%

Basconia 1+ goals

69%

Basconia 2+ goals

32%

Basconia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

49%

Basconia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Basconia away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Basconia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.12

Basconia attack 1.34 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

35%

level

29%

Basconia scores more

37%

Basconia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Aimar VicandiPenalty

60'

Aritz Conde

65'

Jakes Aranbarri← Salaberria

65'

Ander Bengoechea← Eñaut Mendia

75'

Jagoba Erdozia

83'

Gorka Amuchastegui← Ariztimuño

83'

Beñat Arratibel← Lete

83'

Ibai Asenjo← Javier Sola

83'

Julen Lartitegi← Aritz Conde

90'

Edorta Vázquez← Aimar Vicandi

Lagun

Basconia

▼

⚽

▼

Conde

Irizar

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Luis Ribera

65'▲Jakes Aranbarri←▼Salaberria

65'▲Ander Bengoechea←▼Eñaut Mendia

83'▲Gorka Amuchastegui←▼Ariztimuño

83'▲Beñat Arratibel←▼Lete

Lagun Onak substitutes

AranbarriBengoecheaAmuchasteguiArratibel

Manager: Bittor Llopis

83'▲Ibai Asenjo←▼Javier Sola

83'▲Julen Lartitegi←▼Aritz Conde

90'▲Edorta Vázquez←▼Aimar Vicandi

Basconia substitutes

AsenjoLartitegiVázquez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 1–2 Basconia

Basconia beat Lagun Onak 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 23, 2024.

Goals: Aimar Vicandi (7' pen), Aritz Conde (60'), Jagoba Erdozia (75').

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.

Lagun Onak vs Basconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 1–2 Basconia