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Basconia vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Basconia
Basconia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Estadio Artunduaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Basconia53%
×Draw25%
Lagun Onak22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basconia
1.65
Lagun Onak
0.98

Basconia creates 68% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 114 away

creates per match

Basconia
1.97
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Basconia
0.99
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Basconia+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basconia ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Basconia or draw
78%
Basconia or Lagun Onak
75%
Draw or Lagun Onak
47%

Winning margin

Basconia wins by 2+
28%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Basconia 1+ goals
81%
Basconia 2+ goals
49%
Basconia 3+ goals
23%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
62%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
26%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Basconia (draw refunded)
70%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basconia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.99 · 95 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basconia attack 1.97 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Basconia defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Basconia scores more
53%
level
25%
Lagun Onak scores more
22%

Basconia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Basconia 2–1 Lagun Onak

Basconia beat Lagun Onak 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Artunduaga in Basauri.