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Lago Verde vs Expressinho — Maranhense - 2 2026

Lago Verde
Lago Verde
ABD
20:00
Expressinho
Expressinho
7/15/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lago Verde73%
×Draw17%
Expressinho11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lago Verde
2.43
Expressinho
0.81

Lago Verde creates 200% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lago Verde
2.86
Expressinho
0.33

allows per match

Lago Verde
1.29
Expressinho
2.00

finishing

Lago Verde+0.00on par
Expressinho+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lago Verde ↓

Expressinho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lago Verde or draw
89%
Lago Verde or Expressinho
83%
Draw or Expressinho
27%

Winning margin

Lago Verde wins by 2+
50%
Expressinho wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lago Verde 1+ goals
91%
Lago Verde 2+ goals
69%
Lago Verde 3+ goals
43%
Expressinho 1+ goals
56%
Expressinho 2+ goals
19%
Expressinho 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lago Verde (draw refunded)
87%
Expressinho (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lago Verde at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Expressinho away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lago Verde attack 2.86 + Expressinho defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Expressinho attack 0.33 + Lago Verde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lago Verde scores more
73%
level
17%
Expressinho scores more
11%

Lago Verde at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lago Verde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lago Verde host Expressinho

July 15, 2026: Lago Verde take on Expressinho in Maranhense - 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.