Expressinho 0–1 Lago Verde: Result & Stats

Expressinho

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lago Verde

7/11/2026

Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Expressinho7%

×Draw13%

Lago Verde80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExpressinhoExpected goals in this matchLago Verde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

2.75

Expressinho

0.67

Lago Verde

2.75

Lago Verde creates 310% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

0.83

creates per match

2.00

3.50

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Expressinho

0.83

Lago Verde

2.00

allows per match

Expressinho

3.50

Lago Verde

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Expressinho+0.00on par

Lago Verde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Expressinho ↓

Lago Verde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–213%

0–312%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Expressinho or draw

20%

Expressinho or Lago Verde

87%

Draw or Lago Verde

93%

Winning margin

Expressinho wins by 2+

2%

Lago Verde wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Expressinho 1+ goals

49%

Expressinho 2+ goals

15%

Expressinho 3+ goals

3%

Lago Verde 1+ goals

93%

Lago Verde 2+ goals

75%

Lago Verde 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Expressinho (draw refunded)

8%

Lago Verde (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Expressinho at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Lago Verde away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Expressinho attack 0.83 + Lago Verde defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Lago Verde attack 2.00 + Expressinho defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Expressinho scores more

7%

level

13%

Lago Verde scores more

80%

Lago Verde at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Lago Verde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff