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Lagarto vs Central SC — Serie D 2026

Lagarto
Lagarto
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Central SC
Central SC
Rhuann 90'
Lucao 90'
Felipe 24'
Hitalo 90'
Luiz Paulo 79'
8/10/2025Serie DSerie D · Round of 32Estadio Paulo Barreto de Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lagarto48%
×Draw26%
Central SC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagarto
1.46
Central SC
0.98

Lagarto creates 49% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

creates per match

Lagarto
1.96
Central SC
0.84

allows per match

Lagarto
1.13
Central SC
0.95

finishing

Lagarto+0.00on par
Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagarto ↓

Central SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lagarto or draw
75%
Lagarto or Central SC
74%
Draw or Central SC
52%

Winning margin

Lagarto wins by 2+
24%
Central SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lagarto 1+ goals
77%
Lagarto 2+ goals
43%
Lagarto 3+ goals
18%
Central SC 1+ goals
62%
Central SC 2+ goals
26%
Central SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lagarto (draw refunded)
66%
Central SC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagarto at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagarto attack 1.96 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.46

Central SC attack 0.84 + Lagarto defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lagarto scores more
48%
level
26%
Central SC scores more
25%

Lagarto at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lagarto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Felipe
79'
Luiz Paulo
83'
Felipe
90'
Rhuann
90'
Hitalo
90'
Lucao
Lagarto
Central
Alan Dotti
Manager: Alan Dotti
Leandro Sena
Manager: Leandro Sena

Match Recap: Lagarto vs Central SC

Lagarto and Central SC drew 2-2 in Serie D on August 10, 2025.

Goals: Felipe (24'), Luiz Paulo (79'), Rhuann (90'), Hitalo (90'), Lucao (90').

The match was played at Estadio Paulo Barreto de Menezes in Lagarto.