Central SC 1–0 Lagarto: Result & Stats | Serie D

Central SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lagarto

Lazarini 63'

8/3/2025

Serie D · Round of 32Estadio Luiz Jose de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Central SC47%

×Draw30%

Lagarto24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central SCExpected goals in this matchLagarto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.79

Central SC

1.23

Lagarto

0.79

Central SC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

1.29

creates per match

0.87

0.71

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Central SC

1.29

Lagarto

0.87

allows per match

Central SC

0.71

Lagarto

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par

Lagarto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

Lagarto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Central SC or draw

76%

Central SC or Lagarto

70%

Draw or Lagarto

53%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+

21%

Lagarto wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals

71%

Central SC 2+ goals

35%

Central SC 3+ goals

13%

Lagarto 1+ goals

55%

Lagarto 2+ goals

19%

Lagarto 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)

66%

Lagarto (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Lagarto away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + Lagarto defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lagarto attack 0.87 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Central SC scores more

47%

level

30%

Lagarto scores more

24%

Central SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

Lazarini

Central

Lagarto

Manager: Leandro Sena

Manager: Alan Dotti