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Lafnitz II vs Ilz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
FT
3 – 0
Ilz
Ilz
6/2/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 29Sportplatz Lafnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Lafnitz II52%
×Draw21%
Ilz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lafnitz II
2.17
Ilz
1.53

Lafnitz II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 88 away

creates per match

Lafnitz II
2.49
Ilz
1.69

allows per match

Lafnitz II
1.38
Ilz
1.85

finishing

Lafnitz II+0.00on par
Ilz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lafnitz II ↓

Ilz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lafnitz II or draw
73%
Lafnitz II or Ilz
79%
Draw or Ilz
48%

Winning margin

Lafnitz II wins by 2+
31%
Ilz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lafnitz II 1+ goals
89%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
64%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
36%
Ilz 1+ goals
78%
Ilz 2+ goals
45%
Ilz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
66%
Ilz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Ilz away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + Ilz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ilz attack 1.69 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lafnitz II scores more
52%
level
21%
Ilz scores more
27%

Lafnitz II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Lafnitz II 3–0 Ilz

Lafnitz II beat Ilz 3-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lafnitz in Lafnitz.