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Ilz vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Ilz
Ilz
FT
0 – 2
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
4/5/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 20Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ilz41%
×Draw22%
Lafnitz II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilz
1.85
Lafnitz II
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ilz
1.91
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Ilz
1.63
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Ilz+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilz ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ilz or draw
63%
Ilz or Lafnitz II
78%
Draw or Lafnitz II
59%

Winning margin

Ilz wins by 2+
22%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ilz 1+ goals
84%
Ilz 2+ goals
55%
Ilz 3+ goals
28%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
82%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
52%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ilz (draw refunded)
53%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilz at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 88 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilz attack 1.91 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Ilz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ilz scores more
41%
level
22%
Lafnitz II scores more
37%

Ilz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Ilz 0–2 Lafnitz II

Lafnitz II beat Ilz 2-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz in Ilz.