Lafnitz II 3–2 FSC Hochegger Dächer: Result & Stats

Lafnitz II

FT

3 – 2

FSC Hochegger Dächer

3/9/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 16Sportplatz Lafnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lafnitz II48%

×Draw21%

FSC Hochegger Dächer31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lafnitz IIExpected goals in this matchFSC Hochegger Dächer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.70

Lafnitz II

2.13

FSC Hochegger Dächer

1.70

Lafnitz II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 44 away

2.49

creates per match

2.02

1.38

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Lafnitz II

2.49

FSC Hochegger Dächer

2.02

allows per match

Lafnitz II

1.38

FSC Hochegger Dächer

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lafnitz II+0.00on par

FSC Hochegger Dächer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lafnitz II ↓

FSC Hochegger Dächer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Lafnitz II or draw

69%

Lafnitz II or FSC Hochegger Dächer

79%

Draw or FSC Hochegger Dächer

52%

Winning margin

Lafnitz II wins by 2+

28%

FSC Hochegger Dächer wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lafnitz II 1+ goals

88%

Lafnitz II 2+ goals

63%

Lafnitz II 3+ goals

35%

FSC Hochegger Dächer 1+ goals

82%

FSC Hochegger Dächer 2+ goals

51%

FSC Hochegger Dächer 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)

60%

FSC Hochegger Dächer (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

FSC Hochegger Dächer away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + FSC Hochegger Dächer defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.13

FSC Hochegger Dächer attack 2.02 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lafnitz II scores more

48%

level

21%

FSC Hochegger Dächer scores more

31%

Lafnitz II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff