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FSC Hochegger Dächer vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

FSC Hochegger Dächer
FSC Hochegger Dächer
FT
4 – 3
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
8/3/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 1PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FSC Hochegger Dächer51%
×Draw21%
Lafnitz II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.19
Lafnitz II
1.61

FSC Hochegger Dächer creates 36% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.58
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

FSC Hochegger Dächer
1.38
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

FSC Hochegger Dächer+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSC Hochegger Dächer ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FSC Hochegger Dächer or draw
71%
FSC Hochegger Dächer or Lafnitz II
79%
Draw or Lafnitz II
49%

Winning margin

FSC Hochegger Dächer wins by 2+
30%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FSC Hochegger Dächer 1+ goals
89%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 2+ goals
64%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 3+ goals
37%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
80%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
48%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FSC Hochegger Dächer (draw refunded)
64%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSC Hochegger Dächer at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSC Hochegger Dächer attack 2.58 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.19

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + FSC Hochegger Dächer defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FSC Hochegger Dächer scores more
51%
level
21%
Lafnitz II scores more
29%

FSC Hochegger Dächer at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FSC Hochegger Dächer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: FSC Hochegger Dächer 4–3 Lafnitz II

FSC Hochegger Dächer beat Lafnitz II 4-3 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 3, 2023.

The match was played at PROfertil ARENA in Hartberg.