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Ladies Târgu Mureş W vs Farul Constanţa W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
FT
1 – 16
Farul Constanţa W
Farul Constanţa W
12/10/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 13Academia de Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W11%
×Draw14%
Farul Constanţa W75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.18
Farul Constanţa W
3.17

Farul Constanţa W creates 169% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.56
Farul Constanţa W
3.08

allows per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3.25
Farul Constanţa W
0.79

finishing

Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par
Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladies Târgu Mureş W ↓

Farul Constanţa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or draw
25%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W or Farul Constanţa W
86%
Draw or Farul Constanţa W
89%

Winning margin

Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
4%
Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
69%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
33%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
12%
Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals
96%
Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals
82%
Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
13%
Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.25 · 32 matches

Farul Constanţa W away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.79 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.56 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.18

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.08 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
11%
level
14%
Farul Constanţa W scores more
75%

Farul Constanţa W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1–16 Farul Constanţa W

Farul Constanţa W beat Ladies Târgu Mureş W 16-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Academia de Sport in Târgu Mureș.