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Farul Constanţa W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Farul Constanţa W
Farul Constanţa W
FT
5 – 0
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
10/15/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 6Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Farul Constanţa W86%
×Draw9%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanţa W
3.88
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
0.97

Farul Constanţa W creates 300% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 35 away

creates per match

Farul Constanţa W
3.31
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.34

allows per match

Farul Constanţa W
0.59
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
4.46

finishing

Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par
Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanţa W ↓

Ladies Târgu Mureş W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Farul Constanţa W or draw
95%
Farul Constanţa W or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
91%
Draw or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
14%

Winning margin

Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+
71%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals
98%
Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals
89%
Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals
72%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
62%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
25%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)
94%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanţa W at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.59 · 39 matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W away — creates 1.34, concedes 4.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.31 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 4.46 → ÷2 → 3.88

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.34 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Farul Constanţa W scores more
86%
level
9%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
5%

Farul Constanţa W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanţa W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W

Farul Constanţa W beat Ladies Târgu Mureş W 5-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.