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Ladies Târgu Mureş W vs CSS Târgovişte W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
FT
6 – 0
CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
9/26/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 4Academia de Sport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W68%
×Draw15%
CSS Târgovişte W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3.63
CSS Târgovişte W
1.88

Ladies Târgu Mureş W creates 93% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.56
CSS Târgovişte W
0.50

allows per match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3.25
CSS Târgovişte W
5.70

finishing

Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par
CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladies Târgu Mureş W ↓

CSS Târgovişte W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Ladies Târgu Mureş W or draw
83%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W or CSS Târgovişte W
85%
Draw or CSS Târgovişte W
32%

Winning margin

Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
50%
CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
97%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
87%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
68%
CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
85%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
56%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
80%
CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.25 · 32 matches

CSS Târgovişte W away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.56 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 5.70 → ÷2 → 3.63

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.50 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
68%
level
15%
CSS Târgovişte W scores more
17%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ladies Târgu Mureş W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ladies Târgu Mureş W vs CSS Târgovişte W

Ladies Târgu Mureş W beat CSS Târgovişte W 6-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Academia de Sport in Târgu Mureș.