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CSS Târgovişte W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
FT
1 – 2
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
3/6/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 1Teren sintetic Târgoviște

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSS Târgovişte W36%
×Draw18%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSS Târgovişte W
2.59
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
2.94

Ladies Târgu Mureş W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

creates per match

CSS Târgovişte W
0.73
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.34

allows per match

CSS Târgovişte W
4.55
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
4.46

finishing

CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par
Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSS Târgovişte W ↓

Ladies Târgu Mureş W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

CSS Târgovişte W or draw
54%
CSS Târgovişte W or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
82%
Draw or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
64%

Winning margin

CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
20%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
92%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
73%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
47%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
95%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
79%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
43%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSS Târgovişte W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.55 · 11 matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W away — creates 1.34, concedes 4.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.73 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 4.46 → ÷2 → 2.59

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.34 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 4.55 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CSS Târgovişte W scores more
36%
level
18%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
46%

Ladies Târgu Mureş W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ladies Târgu Mureş W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSS Târgovişte W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W

Ladies Târgu Mureş W beat CSS Târgovişte W 2-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Târgoviște in Târgoviște.