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Lada Tolyatti vs Dinamo Kirov — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
4/27/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Kristall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lada Tolyatti18%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Kirov60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Tolyatti
0.93
Dinamo Kirov
1.88

Dinamo Kirov creates 102% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.46

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti
2.29
Dinamo Kirov
0.85

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par
Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Dinamo Kirov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw
40%
Lada Tolyatti or Dinamo Kirov
78%
Draw or Dinamo Kirov
82%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
6%
Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
61%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
24%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
7%
Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
56%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
23%
Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Dinamo Kirov away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Dinamo Kirov defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.46 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more
18%
level
22%
Dinamo Kirov scores more
60%

Dinamo Kirov at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lada Tolyatti vs Dinamo Kirov

Dinamo Kirov beat Lada Tolyatti 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall in Syzran'.