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Dinamo Kirov vs Lada Tolyatti — Second League - Group 4 2020

Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
8/3/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Avitek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dinamo Kirov80%
×Draw13%
Lada Tolyatti7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Kirov
2.74
Lada Tolyatti
0.67

Dinamo Kirov creates 309% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov
2.54
Lada Tolyatti
0.71

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov
0.62
Lada Tolyatti
2.93

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par
Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Lada Tolyatti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw
93%
Dinamo Kirov or Lada Tolyatti
87%
Draw or Lada Tolyatti
20%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
59%
Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
93%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
75%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
51%
Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
49%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
15%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
92%
Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 2.54 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.74

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Dinamo Kirov defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more
80%
level
13%
Lada Tolyatti scores more
7%

Dinamo Kirov at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Kirov vs Lada Tolyatti

Dinamo Kirov beat Lada Tolyatti 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avitek in Kirov.