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Lada Dimitrovgrad vs Dinamo Barnaul — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
4/7/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad46%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Barnaul27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.45
Dinamo Barnaul
1.05

Lada Dimitrovgrad creates 38% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.86
Dinamo Barnaul
1.18

allows per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.93
Dinamo Barnaul
2.05

finishing

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Dimitrovgrad ↓

Dinamo Barnaul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lada Dimitrovgrad or draw
73%
Lada Dimitrovgrad or Dinamo Barnaul
74%
Draw or Dinamo Barnaul
54%

Winning margin

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
77%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
42%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
18%
Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
63%
Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Dinamo Barnaul away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 0.86 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.18 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
46%
level
26%
Dinamo Barnaul scores more
27%

Lada Dimitrovgrad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lada Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Lada Dimitrovgrad 1–0 Dinamo Barnaul

Lada Dimitrovgrad beat Dinamo Barnaul 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Dimitrovgrad.