Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Barnaul vs Lada Dimitrovgrad — Second League - Group 4 2020

Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
10/17/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dinamo Barnaul39%
×Draw25%
Lada Dimitrovgrad36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Barnaul
1.44
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.37
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

allows per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.23
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

finishing

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par
Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Barnaul ↓

Lada Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Barnaul or draw
64%
Dinamo Barnaul or Lada Dimitrovgrad
75%
Draw or Lada Dimitrovgrad
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
19%
Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
18%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
74%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
39%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
52%
Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Barnaul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.37 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 1.50 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Barnaul scores more
39%
level
25%
Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
36%

Dinamo Barnaul at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Barnaul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Barnaul vs Lada Dimitrovgrad

Dinamo Barnaul beat Lada Dimitrovgrad 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Barnaul.