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Laci vs Dinamo Tirana — Superliga 2018

Laci
Laci
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
4/19/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 35Stadiumi Laçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Laci48%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Tirana25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laci
1.39
Dinamo Tirana
0.91

Laci creates 53% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 76 away

creates per match

Laci
1.48
Dinamo Tirana
0.93

allows per match

Laci
0.88
Dinamo Tirana
1.30

finishing

Laci+0.00on par
Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laci ↓

Dinamo Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Laci or draw
75%
Laci or Dinamo Tirana
73%
Draw or Dinamo Tirana
52%

Winning margin

Laci wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Laci 1+ goals
75%
Laci 2+ goals
40%
Laci 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
60%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Laci (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laci at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laci attack 1.48 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dinamo Tirana attack 0.93 + Laci defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Laci scores more
48%
level
27%
Dinamo Tirana scores more
25%

Laci at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laci vs Dinamo Tirana

Laci beat Dinamo Tirana 1-0 in Superliga on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Laçi in Laç.