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Dinamo Tirana vs Laci — Superliga 2018

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Laci
Laci
10/4/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 8Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dinamo Tirana39%
×Draw30%
Laci31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.10
Laci
0.95

Dinamo Tirana creates 16% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 126 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.21
Laci
0.90

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.00
Laci
1.00

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Laci+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Laci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
69%
Dinamo Tirana or Laci
70%
Draw or Laci
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
16%
Laci wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
10%
Laci 1+ goals
61%
Laci 2+ goals
25%
Laci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
56%
Laci (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Laci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + Laci defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Laci attack 0.90 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
39%
level
30%
Laci scores more
31%

Dinamo Tirana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Tirana vs Laci

Dinamo Tirana beat Laci 2-1 in Superliga on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.