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La Virgen del Camino vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

La Virgen del Camino36%
×Draw31%
Burgos Promesas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.02
Burgos Promesas
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 63 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Burgos Promesas
1.02

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Burgos Promesas
0.94

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
66%
La Virgen del Camino or Burgos Promesas
69%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
64%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
14%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
64%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
27%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
8%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
62%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
26%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
52%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
36%
level
31%
Burgos Promesas scores more
34%

La Virgen del Camino at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Virgen del Camino 1–0 Burgos Promesas

La Virgen del Camino beat Burgos Promesas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.